Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
03-Aug-26 A+ A1 Stable Maintain -
15-Aug-25 A+ A1 Stable Maintain -
15-Aug-24 A+ A1 Stable Maintain -
15-Aug-23 A+ A1 Stable Upgrade -
09-Sep-22 A A1 Stable Maintain -
About the Entity

Harappa Solar Private Limited was incorporated in September 2014 and operates an 18MWp solar power plant under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006. Commercial operations commenced in October 2017 following financial close in February 2017. The project was developed at a total cost of USD 24.4 million, of which approximately 75% was financed through local and foreign debt. The Company forms part of a broader renewable energy portfolio and is governed by a seven-member Board led by Chief Executive Officer Mr. Rana Uzair Nasim.

Rating Rationale

The assigned ratings reflect the comparatively low-risk business profile of Harappa Solar Private Limited ("Harappa Solar" or "the Company"), a grid-connected renewable Independent Power Producer (IPP) operating under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006. The Company's business risk profile is supported by its long-term contractual framework, particularly the 25-year Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) with the Power Purchaser, which materially mitigates offtake risk by ensuring the purchase of electricity generated throughout the contractual term. In addition, the sovereign guarantee covering the Power Purchaser's payment obligations significantly reduces counterparty risk. These contractual arrangements provide strong revenue visibility over the remaining operating life of the plant, largely insulating the Company from fluctuations in electricity demand, tariff changes, and payment risk. The ratings are further supported by the sponsor group's established track record in developing and operating renewable energy projects in Pakistan. The participation of Windforce (Pvt.) Ltd., a Sri Lanka-based renewable energy company, strengthens the Company's technical capabilities and operational governance. Pakistan's renewable energy sector continues to benefit from favourable solar and wind resources supported by a long-term policy framework aimed at increasing the share of renewable energy in the country's generation mix. Despite these favourable fundamentals, the sector remains exposed to structural challenges, including circular debt, evolving regulatory policies, transmission constraints, and changing electricity demand dynamics. As part of broader power sector reforms, the Government has undertaken initiatives to rationalize capacity payments, resulting in revised tariff arrangements for a number of IPPs. Harappa Solar continues to operate under its original tariff framework, with no changes to the contractual terms governing the project, owing to its existing financing and shareholding structure, comprising foreign lenders and an international strategic shareholder. During FY9M26 operational performance has remained above the contractual benchmark where the electricity generation stood at 27,438MWh (30,942MWh-FY25 and 30,397MWh-FY24). Revenue generation remained stable, with net revenues of PKR 599mln during 9MFY26 compared with PKR 929mln in FY25 and PKR 926mln in FY24, supporting healthy profitability. The Company's financial profile continues to strengthen through scheduled debt repayments. As of 9MFY26, approximately 82.5% of both the local and foreign financing facilities had been repaid, reducing leverage to 40.7% (FY25: 46.5%; FY24: 54.2%). The DSRA, maintained at two scheduled debt repayments and supported through an SBLC, provides additional protection against temporary debt servicing disruptions. Working capital requirements remain inherently low, as solar power generation does not require inventory or significant raw material procurement. Accordingly, working capital is managed through a combination of internally generated operating cash flows and short-term borrowing facilities. Despite maintaining a consistent dividend payout, the Company has continued to meet its debt obligations while preserving adequate liquidity.

Key Rating Drivers

Going forward, sustaining operational performance, maintaining prudent liquidity management and timely project related debt payments will remain important rating considerations.

Profile
Plant

Harappa Solar Private Limited (“Harappa Solar” or “Company”) has established an 18 MWp solar power plant near Harappa Bypass, Tehsil and District Sahiwal, Punjab, under Pakistan’s Renewable Energy Policy 2006. This facility is notable for being Pakistan’s first single-axis tracking solar plant, which enhances efficiency by following the sun’s movement across the sky. The plant’s configuration includes twenty-four (24) central inverters of 630 kW each and twelve (12) transformers rated at 1500 kVA. After accounting for auxiliary consumption, the net rated capacity of the plant is approximately 17.305 MW.


Tariff

Harappa Solar secured an Upfront Tariff from NEPRA, guaranteeing a levelized generation tariff of 11.6972 US¢ per kWh for 25 years. This tariff covers key cost components including operations and maintenance (O&M), insurance, return on equity (ROE), and debt servicing. The tariff is structured into two phases: 14.0604 US¢ per kWh for the first 10 years and 6.2363 US¢ per kWh for the remaining 15 years, averaging out to the approved levelized rate. Unlike thermal power plants, which receive both energy and capacity payments, Harappa Solar will receive only energy payments, making it a performance-based model aligned with the variable nature of solar power generation.The revised tariff for the April to June 2026 quarter has been notified at PKR 29.0090 Rs. /kWh, based on prevailing exchange rates and indexation adjustments. 


Return on Project

The ROE of the Harappa Solar project, as agreed with NEPRA, is 17%


Ownership
Ownership Structure

Rana Nasim Ahmed is the primary sponsor and majority shareholder of Harappa Solar, with a 75% stake. Other significant shareholders include Mr. Khaqan Babar Cheema (12%) and Windforce (Pvt.) Ltd. (12.8%).


Stability

Stability in Harappa Solar (Pvt.) Ltd, like other Independent Power Producers (IPPs), is ensured through long-term contractual agreements with the power purchaser. The Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) spans 25 years, offering predictable revenue over the project’s lifecycle. Additionally, the Implementation Agreement with the government provides a sovereign guarantee for payment security, safeguarding cashflows as long as the company meets agreed performance benchmarks. This framework minimizes financial risk and enhances investor confidence in the project’s long-term viability.



Business Acumen

The sponsors of Harappa Solar bring strong business acumen, combining local and international expertise with a track record of developing renewable energy and infrastructure projects, including solar and hydropower ventures. Their hands-on experience in commissioning, operating, and managing power plants ensures technical competence, operational reliability, and strategic insight, which have been critical to the successful execution and long-term sustainability of the Harappa Solar project.


Financial Strength

Harappa Solar benefits from strong financial backing, with sponsors possessing a solid capital base and a history of successful infrastructure investments. The involvement of Windforce (Pvt.) Limited, a well-established foreign investor with a robust financial profile, further enhances the project’s credibility and financial stability. This combination of local and international financial strength provides long-term assurance to stakeholders and supports the project’s ongoing operational and financial performance.


Governance
Board Structure

Harappa Solar's Board of Directors consists of seven members, including the CEO. One of these directors is nominated by a major sponsor, Windforce PLC, reflecting an element of sponsor oversight. The CEO serves as the sole executive director, while the remaining members are non-executive, ensuring governance and strategic supervision. The Board includes Rana Nasim Ahmed, the majority sponsor, reinforcing leadership alignment with the company's long-term vision.


Members’ Profile

Mr. Rana Nasim Ahmed, Chairman of Harappa Solar’s Board and its main sponsor, brings over two decades of leadership in the energy and industrial sectors. As COO and Resident Director of JDW Sugar Mills since 2001, he played a key role in transforming it into one of Pakistan’s leading sugar enterprises. He pioneered high-pressure bagasse-based cogeneration IPPs and contributed significantly to shaping national policy and regulatory frameworks for renewable energy. Mr. Ahmed also sponsors Gharo Solar, a 50MWp solar project near Thatta, further demonstrating his commitment to clean energy development in Pakistan.The remaining Board comprises Mr. Rana Uzair Nasim, Chief Executive Officer of the Company; Mr. Mohammad Khaqan Babar Cheema; Ms. Kanahela Bandaralage Manjula Ignatius Perera, nominee director of Windforce PLC, Sri Lanka; Mr. Saeed Ahmad Khan; Ms. Uzma Nasim; and Mr. Umar Nazir, who also serves as Company Secretary. Together, the Board reflects a balanced representation of sponsor family members, institutional nominees, and executive management. 



Board Effectiveness

Harappa Solar’s Board operates without formal Board committees, with all oversight functions managed collectively by the full Board. Despite the absence of specialized committees, the company ensures transparency and accountability by maintaining proper documentation through well-recorded Board meeting minutes, supporting effective governance and decision-making.


Financial Transparency

BDO Ebrahim & Co. Chartered Accountants, currently rated in Category “A” on the State Bank of Pakistan’s panel of auditors, serves as Harappa Solar’s external auditor. They issued an unqualified opinion on the company’s financial statements for the year ended June 30, 2025.


Management
Organizational Structure

Harappa Solar has a flat organizational structure common to IPPs, with a streamlined team focused on finance and technical oversight. Core functions—including engineering, construction, and plant operations—are outsourced to specialized firms, allowing for efficient resource utilization and expert-driven project execution.


Management Team

Harappa Solar’s management team is led by CEO Rana Uzair Nasim, who played a pivotal role in the project’s development from incorporation to financial close and operational launch. A graduate in Economics with a Master’s in Management Science & Engineering from Stanford University, Mr. Uzair brings strong academic credentials and hands-on experience in renewable energy. He was actively involved in the successful execution of JDW Sugar Mills’ bagasse-based power projects and briefly worked as a financial advisor in the U.S. He is supported by a team of experienced and capable professionals overseeing the company’s operations and performance.


Effectiveness

The management’s role in an IPP is confined largely to financial matters and regulatory interaction. The management tier ensures effective delegation of functional responsibility across various departments, facilitating a smooth flow of operations.


Control Environment

Harappa Solar takes advantage of advanced I.T. solutions to deliver comparatively better on many fronts.


Operational Risk
Power Purchase Agreement

Harappa Solar has a 25-year Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) with the Central Power Purchasing Agency (Guarantee) Limited (CPPA-G). Under this agreement, the project receives only energy payments based on actual electricity supplied to the grid, unlike thermal plants that receive both energy and capacity payments. This structure aligns with the nature of solar generation and ensures payments are directly tied to performance and output.



Operation and Maintenance

Harappa Solar has entrusted OMS (Pvt.) Limited with Owner's Engineering and O&M Contractor services for its 18 MW solar plant, under a contract that renews every two years, with the current term set to expire on September 30, 2026. OMS deploys full-time personnel on-site, maintaining a comprehensive O&M Plan and ensuring operations meet Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), with availability consistently exceeding guaranteed targets. The contract also includes a 12-hour non-sunlight window for resolving equipment malfunctions, giving the team flexibility to address issues efficiently while minimizing downtime. This arrangement supports reliable plant operations and sustained energy generation.


Resource Risk

Resource risk for Harappa Solar primarily involves variations in solar irradiation and temperature, which directly impact energy generation. To mitigate this, the plant uses single-axis tracking technology that optimizes the capture of sunlight throughout the day, enhancing efficiency and helping to reduce the impact of fluctuating solar resources. This technology improves the plant’s ability to maximize energy output despite natural variability in weather conditions.


Insurance Cover

Harappa Solar maintains comprehensive insurance coverage, including material damage and third-party liability, safeguarding the plant against operational risks. Additionally, the EPC contract, which previously included specific performance benchmarks and liquidated damages provisions in case actual performance fell below the agreed threshold, is no longer valid.


Performance Risk
Industry Dynamics

In Mar'26, Pakistan's total power generation rose to 8,939 GWh, reflecting a strong YoY increase of 6.3% from 8,409 GWh in Mar'25, and a MoM increase of 16.2% from 7,696 GWh in Feb'26 (largely seasonal). For 9MFY26, cumulative generation reached 93,131 GWh, up 3.3% YoY. Generation exceeded the NEPRA reference level during the month — attributed to lower industrial tariffs, a shift of industrial consumers back onto the national grid, incremental consumption packages for industrial and agricultural users, and improved economic activity (LSM up 5.9% YoY in 8MFY26) — and in fact marked the third-highest March output on record. The generation mix shifted notably: hydel generation surged 62.3% YoY to 2,105 GWh (24% share, up from 15% in Mar'25), driven by higher demand and reduced RLNG/nuclear output; imported coal jumped 126% YoY to 1,234 GWh (14% share, up from 6%); local coal rose 8% YoY to 1,498 GWh (17% share); wind generation increased 34% YoY to 309 GWh (3% share); while RLNG-based generation fell sharply by 67% YoY to just 504 GWh (6% share, down from 18%) amid supply disruptions linked to the US–Iran conflict, with only 2 of 8 scheduled cargoes imported. Nuclear generation declined 11.7% YoY to 1,962 GWh (22% share, down from 26%), likely due to annual technical outages at Chashma-III and KANUPP (K-3). Solar output edged down 12% YoY to 106 GWh (1% share), while RFO output rose sharply (up 23x YoY, from a very low base) and gas rose modestly (+4% YoY to 1,014 GWh). On the cost side, the adjusted fuel cost in Mar'26 stood at PKR 8.26/kWh, slightly above the NEPRA reference cost of PKR 8.00/kWh, resulting in a modest positive Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) of PKR 0.27/kWh — kept low by a comparatively favourable energy mix despite elevated oil prices. Notably, the March power generation cost itself was down 14.6% YoY, from PKR 9.46/kWh in Mar'25 to PKR 8.08/kWh in Mar'26. Generation trends from Dec'25–Mar'26 point to improving grid stability and a better outlook for future quarterly tariff adjustments, aided by lower industrial tariffs and higher levies on captive gas, though risks remain from prolonged RLNG disruptions tied to the US–Iran conflict, which could push FCAs and tariffs higher or trigger load shedding. NEPRA projects overall power demand to grow by 1.0% YoY in CY26.


Generation

The Annual Benchmark electricity generation for Harappa Solar based on 17% Capacity Factor is 26,806 MWh. During 11MFY26, Harappa Solar generated 27,438 MWh, compared to 30,942 MWh in FY25 (FY24: 30,397 MWh, FY23: 31,475 MWh, FY22: 31,216 MWh) of electrical output, meeting the required benchmark.

Fiscal Year

Benchmark Generation (MWh)

Actual Generation (MWh)

Capacity Factor

FY24

26,084

30,397

19.27%

FY25

25,927

30,943

19.62%

11MFY26

23,445

27,438

18.95%


Performance Benchmark

Under the Energy Purchase Agreement, Harappa Solar is required to maintain a minimum plant availability of 90%. During 11MFY26, the plant exceeded this benchmark, achieving an average availability of 99%, demonstrating strong operational performance.


Financial Risk
Financing Structure Analysis

Financing for the project follows a standard 75:25 debt-to-equity ratio. The USD 18 million debt includes a USD 8.2 million FCY loan from ECO Trade and Development and a PKR 996 million local facility from a bank consortium. Equity sponsors contributed approximately USD 6 million. The company maintains a strong repayment record, having serviced thirty-three installments by March 2026. A Debt Service Reserve Account (DSRA), required to cover two repayments, is currently supported by sponsor SBLC. A key financial safeguard allows tariff adjustments for USD appreciation, protecting revenue.


Liquidity Profile

At the end of Mar-26, Harappa Solar's total trade receivables stood at PKR 239 million, down from PKR 258.5 million as at Jun-25, even as gross working capital days rose slightly to 114 days in 9MFY26 from 107 days in FY25.Short-term investments also declined from PKR 60.5 million (Jun-25) to PKR 0.2 million (Mar-26), while cash and bank balances moderated from PKR 66.5 million to PKR 13.7 million, as the company utilized these liquid resources to meet its working capital and operational requirements. However, as the ongoing circular debt issue in Pakistan's power sector strains Liquidity, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) like Harappa Solar continue to rely on short-term borrowings to meat operational requirements.


Working Capital Financing

As of Mar-26, Harappa Solar's total short-term working capital line stood at PKR 325 million, of which PKR 292 million had been utilized, reflecting a high utilization level of 89.9%. This leaves limited headroom of around PKR 33 million, indicating the company's growing reliance on short-term credit lines to meet its operational requirements.


Cash Flow Analysis

In 9MFY26, Free Cash Flow from Operations (FCFO) stood at PKR 428 million, compared to PKR 716 million in FY25 (12M), reflecting relatively lower operating cash generation during the period. The key debt coverage ratio (EBITDA/Finance Cost) further improved to 6.1x in 9MFY26 from 5.0x in FY25, supported by the reduction in finance cost following continued repayment of long-term debt.


Capitalization

As of 9MFY26, it has repaid 82.5% of the local loan and 78.6% of the foreign loan. Short-term borrowings stood at Rs. 291.9 million as of March 31, 2026, broadly unchanged from Rs. 292.6 million as of June 30, 2025. Total leverage declined to 40.7% (FY25: 46.5%, FY24: 54.2%), of which short-term borrowings alone accounted for 10.3% (FY25: 9.6%, FY24: 8.9%).


 
 

Aug-26

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(PKR mln)


Mar-26
9M
Jun-25
12M
Jun-24
12M
Jun-23
12M
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 2,606 2,701 2,818 2,908
2. Investments 0 60 137 25
3. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 0
4. Current Assets 411 483 453 565
a. Inventories 0 0 0 0
b. Trade Receivables 239 259 284 371
5. Total Assets 3,017 3,244 3,407 3,498
6. Current Liabilities 183 177 146 173
a. Trade Payables 3 3 7 0
7. Borrowings 1,148 1,418 1,759 1,996
8. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 0
9. Non-Current Liabilities 11 16 13 4
10. Net Assets 1,675 1,633 1,489 1,325
11. Shareholders' Equity 1,675 1,633 1,489 1,325
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 599 929 927 840
a. Cost of Good Sold (199) (246) (228) (201)
2. Gross Profit 400 683 699 639
a. Operating Expenses (69) (102) (82) (54)
3. Operating Profit 331 581 617 585
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) 2 7 14 8
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 334 588 631 593
a. Total Finance Cost (82) (165) (242) (204)
b. Taxation (1) (1) (3) (3)
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 251 421 387 386
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 428 716 771 706
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 428 572 536 706
c. Changes in Working Capital 28 37 112 (110)
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities 455 609 647 596
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities 56 71 (115) 42
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities (564) (654) (629) (591)
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period (52) 25 (97) 46
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) -14.1% 0.3% 10.3% 122.6%
b. Gross Profit Margin 66.8% 73.5% 75.4% 76.0%
c. Net Profit Margin 41.9% 45.3% 41.7% 46.0%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) 76.1% 81.0% 95.2% 70.9%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 19.3% 25.2% 25.6% 30.8%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 114 107 129 143
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 112 105 128 143
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.3
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 6.1 5.0 3.5 3.9
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 1.9 2.0 2.7 3.5
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 40.7% 46.5% 54.2% 60.1%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 33.5 26.5 28.1 88.5
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 6.9% 9.3% 11.8% 9.1%

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