Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
15-Oct-26 AA- A1 Stable Maintain -
23-Oct-25 AA- A1 Stable Maintain -
25-Oct-24 AA- A1 Stable Maintain -
25-Oct-23 AA- A1 Stable Upgrade -
16-Feb-23 A A2 Stable Upgrade -
About the Entity

TNPTL is incorporated on April 18, 2016. HUBCO holds 38.3% ownership and management control through Hub Power Holdings Limited (HPHL), while the remaining shareholding is split among Thal Power (26.0%), Nova Powergen (24.7%), CMEC ThalNova Power Investments (10.0%), and Descon Engineering (1.0%). The plant achieved COD on February 17, 2023, operates under long-term Power Purchase and Coal Supply Agreements. Mr. Amjad Ali Raja, appointed CEO in July 2024, has over 22 years of sector experience and reports to a Board of directors

Rating Rationale

ThalNova Power Thar (Pvt.) Limited (TNPTL or "the Company") operates a 330MW mine-mouth lignite-fired power plant at Block II, Thar Coalfield, District Tharparkar, Sindh, forming part of energy projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). As of FY26, Pakistan's power sector generated 128,700 GWh, up 1.2% YoY, supported by a total installed capacity of 49,651 MW, up 8.5% from 45,782 MW a year earlier. Clean sources - hydel, nuclear, and renewables combined - led the mix, accounting for 50.8% of installed capacity (up from 43.3% a year earlier), while thermal's share fell to 49.2% from 56.7%, with coal-based generation contributing 22.9% of total generation (up from 19.4% in FY25), underscoring its growing role in ensuring stable base-load generation. Indigenous Thar coal has emerged as a key pillar of energy security, offering cost-effective and reliable power compared to imported fuels. Imported coal generation rose sharply, as reduced RLNG availability and elevated LNG costs pushed dispatch toward coal. TNPTL has secured its fuel requirements through a 30-year Coal Supply Agreement with Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company, signed on May 13, 2017, for the annual procurement of around 1.9 MTPA of lignite coal. The arrangement ensures fuel cost stability and entails minimal resource risk throughout the project's life, supported by liquidated damages provisions under the agreement. The plant continues to be dispatched on priority by the power purchaser, CPPA-G, due to its low-cost generation profile. Leveraging its dispatch priority, the plant generated 1,824 GWh in FY26 (FY25: 1,768 GWh) at a load factor of 69.0% (FY25: 67.0%), while maintaining strong operational performance benchmarks.Financially, receivables from CPPA-G stood at PKR 16,616mln as of June 30, 2026, continuing to weigh on liquidity, with Gross Working Capital days rising to 118 days in FY26 (FY25: 109 days; FY24: 74 days). The requirement continues to be largely managed through internally generated cash flows, with net cash from operations of PKR 18,728mln in FY26, while short-term borrowings were reduced to PKR 1,500mln (FY25: PKR 3,000mln). Strong cash generation has also supported timely debt repayments, with PKR 7,173mln of long-term loans repaid during the year, bringing leverage down to 59.9% in FY26 from 62.8% in FY25. The Company has also paid a dividend of PKR 12,862mln (Rs 5.49 per share) in FY26, with a further interim dividend of Rs 3.25 per share (PKR 7,614mln) declared in July 2026. The Company is also disputing USD 31mln HVDC charges linked to COD delays; management, supported by legal counsel, does not expect any financial liability to arise.Following the ESG practices according to the HUBCO’s report, environmental standards are taken care of at TNPTL where all ash yards are lined with geo-membranes to prevent leaching. Further, in reference to HUBCO’s report they are actively pursuing fly ash reuse in cement, roadworks, and recycling partnerships, which are expected to reduce waste management costs.

Key Rating Drivers

TNPTL continues to demonstrate strong operational performance, underpinned by consistent achievement of efficiency and availability benchmarks that support its favorable merit order position. Sustained cash flow generation and timely servicing of project debt remain important for maintaining the Company’s credit strength. Meanwhile, developments in the power sector, including tariff adjustments, CPPA-G payment trends and circular debt, remain relevant. Any regulatory measures introduced under ongoing sector reforms may affect the Company’s ratings.

Profile
Plant

ThalNova Power Thar Limited (TNPTL) is an Independent Power Producer (IPP), has developed a 330 MW mine-mouth lignite-fired power plant at Thar Coal Block II, Sindh, under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Operating on a Build-Own-Operate (BOO) basis, the plant commenced construction in 2019 and achieved its Commercial Operations Date (COD) on 17th February 2023. The Company also achieved its Project Completion Date (PCD) on October 31, 2025.


Tariff

TNPTL has been awarded a levelized tariff of US¢8.5015/kWh (PKR 8.2550/kWh) by NEPRA for its coal power project, with a control period of 30 years from COD. The tariff is indexed to the PKR–USD exchange rate as well as US and Pakistan CPI inflation. It includes principal and interest repayments, return on equity, insurance, and fixed and variable O&M costs as adjustable components. Fuel costs along with all applicable taxes and levies are fully passed through to the power purchaser. For the quarter of July to September 2026, the capacity charges and energy purchase price stand at PKR 11.2603 and PKR 1.0627 per kWh, respectively.


Return on Project

TNPTL's key source of earnings would be the revenue generated through sale of electricity to the Power Purchaser, CPPA-G. The return on equity (ROE) in $ terms as per the tariff determination of the project is at 30.65%.


Ownership
Ownership Structure

As of June 30, 2026, the ownership structure of ThalNova Power Thar Limited (TNPTL) comprised Hub Power Holdings Limited (HPHL) holding 38.3%, Thal Power (Private) Limited (Thal SPV) holding 26.0%, Nova Powergen Limited (Nova SPV) holding 24.7%, CMEC ThalNova Power Investments Limited holding 10.0%, and Descon Engineering Limited holding 1.0% of the total shareholding.  


Stability

Stability is underpinned by the long-term strategic investment of its sponsoring groups, including Hub Power Holdings Limited (HUBCO), Thal Power (Private) Limited, Nova Powergen Limited, China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) through CMEC ThalNova Power Investments Limited, and Descon Engineering Limited. This strong and diversified sponsorship ensures TNPTL's long-term sustainability and operational resilience.


Business Acumen

The sponsor groups have a proven track record in developing and operating power projects across Pakistan, spanning thermal, coal, and renewable energy sources. HUBCO, as the major sponsor, is one of the country’s largest independent power producers, with a total installed power generation capacity of 3,581 MW across its directly and indirectly held power assets. The portfolio comprises the 1,292 MW Hub Power Plant, 225 MW Narowal Energy Limited, 84 MW Laraib Energy Limited, 1,320 MW China Power Hub Generation Company Limited (CPHGC), 330 MW Thar Energy Limited (TEL), and 330 MW ThalNova Power Thar (TNPTL). These assets are held through a combination of direct ownership, subsidiaries, and joint ventures, including Hub Power Holdings Limited (HPHL).


Financial Strength

Diversified across multiple sectors, Hub Power Holdings Limited (HUBCO), Thal Power (Private) Limited, and Nova Powergen Limited represent some of Pakistan's leading business groups with strong financial foundations. Their partner, China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC), contributes global engineering expertise and international project experience, while Descon Engineering Limited adds local industrial capabilities. Reinforcing this strength, HUBCO committed to provide an SBLC of up to USD 20 million for TNPTL, and issued a Cost Overrun SBLC of USD 19.68 million in January 2020, covering cost overruns, pre-PCD financing obligations and COD undertakings.


Governance
Board Structure

ThalNova's Board of Directors (BoD) comprises eight members, including seven non-executive members along with the Chief Executive Officer. Hub Power Holdings Ltd. is represented by three members, including the Chairman, Nova Powergen Ltd. and Thal Power Ltd. each have two representatives, while one member represents CMEC. The Board includes Mr. Muhammad Kamran Kamal (Chairman, Hubco Nominee), Mr. Aly Khan (Hubco Nominee), Mr. Amjad Ali Raja (Chief Executive Officer, Hubco Nominee), Mr. Muhammad Tayyab Ahmad Tareen (Thal Nominee), Mr. Muhammad Salman Burney (Thal Nominee), Mr. Rizwan Diwan (Nova Powergen Nominee), Mr. Saqib Haroon Bilwani (Nova Powergen Nominee), and Mr. Zhao Wenke (CMEC Nominee).


Members’ Profile

Mr. Kamran Kamal is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of TNPTL and also the CEO of The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBCO). He has been associated with HUBCO Group in various capacities and brings vast experience of the local power sector. The remaining members also possess sufficient experience in their respective fields.


Board Effectiveness

The board conducts regular meetings to discuss matters relating to the Company's operations and financials, along with providing supervision and granting approval for other policies of the Company.


Financial Transparency

A.F. Ferguson & Co., Chartered Accountants (Category 'A'), a reputable and long-established audit and assurance firm in Pakistan, serve as the external auditors of TNPTL.


Management
Organizational Structure

IPPs are generally featured by a flat organizational structure, mainly comprising finance and technical staff, while the engineering, construction and operations of the plant are outsourced.


Management Team

Mr. Amjad Ali Raja was appointed as Chief Executive Officer in July 2024. He has been associated with the HUBCO group since 2013 and brings over 22 years of experience in the energy sector, backed by an engineering background. The rest of the management team also holds the requisite qualifications and experience to effectively discharge their responsibilities.


Effectiveness

The management is majorly engaged in operational matters relating to the Company including invoicing to CPPAG, internal audit, preparation of accounts and tariff determination while the plant's operations and maintenance are outsourced.


Control Environment

The management has established a robust internal audit function that ensures timely provision of data and reports. In addition, the operation and maintenance contractors regularly share updates with the management on plant operations, facilitating efficient oversight and smooth functioning.


Operational Risk
Power Purchase Agreement

ThalNova Power Thar Limited has entered into a 30-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee (CPPA-G), under which the plant supplies electricity in two components: Capacity Purchase Price and Energy Purchase Price. Under the terms, TNPTL invoices CPPA-G for both capacity charges (ensuring revenue even during periods of low dispatch or availability) and for energy supplied. The tariff structure is levelized over the 30-year control period starting from COD, incorporating Return on Equity (ROE), O&M costs, and other fixed cost components, while fuel costs, taxes, and levies are fully passed through.


Operation and Maintenance

ThalNova is equipped with European technology, with its Boiler, Turbine, and Generator designed and manufactured by General Electric (GE), ensuring high reliability and emission levels well below the limits prescribed by SEPA. To ensure efficient operations, TNPTL has entered into a long-term Operation and Maintenance (O&M) agreement with Hub Power Services Limited (HPSL), a subsidiary of the HUBCO Group, which also manages O&M for other plants within the group.


Resource Risk

TNPTL has secured its fuel requirements through a 30-year Coal Supply Agreement (CSA) with Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC), signed on May 13, 2017, ensuring uninterrupted coal supply for plant operations. Under the CSA, SECMC is entitled to receive capacity payments even during suspension periods, instances where the project company declines coal deliveries, or when the mine is unavailable due to forced, scheduled, or maintenance outages not linked to coal unavailability. Payments to SECMC are made within 30 days of invoice receipt, net of any liquidated damages or disputed amounts.


Insurance Cover

The coverage includes material damage, machinery breakdown, third-party liability, and business interruption/delay in startup losses, ensuring protection of both physical assets and revenue streams. In addition, contractors are contractually bound to pay Liquidated Damages (LDs) in the event that benchmark performance ratios are not achieved. These measures collectively mitigate operational and financial risks associated with unforeseen events, ensuring continuity of plant operations and revenue stability.


Performance Risk
Industry Dynamics

As of March 2026, Pakistan's total installed generation capacity reached 49,651 MW. This is 8.5% higher than 45,782 MW a year earlier. The growth was driven mainly by net-metered distributed solar (7,319 MW cumulative). Over the same period, 13 thermal IPPs totaling 5,105 MW were retired or closed. Clean sources (hydel, nuclear and renewables) now account for the majority of installed capacity at 50.8%, up from 43.3% a year earlier. Thermal's share fell to 49.2% from 56.7%. Total generation for FY26 rose 1.2% YoY to 128,700 GWh. Combined local and imported coal generation climbed to 22.9% of the mix, up from 19.4% in FY25. This was led by a 51.6% YoY surge in imported coal. Reduced RLNG availability and elevated LNG costs pushed dispatch toward coal. This trend sharpened further in Jul'26. Power demand rose 7.1% YoY to 15,122 GWh. Coal-based generation reached 3,819 GWh (+44% YoY), the highest for any July, with imported coal up 90% YoY.


Generation

Net electrical output of the plant during FY26 stood at 1,824 GWh (FY25: 1,768 GWh) with a load factor of 69% (FY25: 67%). The power purchaser continues to source electricity from the plant on priority owing to its low generation cost.


Performance Benchmark

The required availability for ThalNova Power Thar Limited under the PPA is 85%, while the required efficiency is 37%. During FY26, the plant maintained an average availability of 94.4%, comfortably above the required benchmark, notwithstanding a temporary dip to 33% in November 2025 on account of forced and scheduled outages. Average efficiency for the year stood at 36.8%, broadly in line with the required benchmark of 37%.


Financial Risk
Financing Structure Analysis

ThalNova Power Thar (Pvt.) Limited's $526.6 million project is 75% debt-financed (USD 395 million) through a mix of foreign and local syndicates. A consortium of Chinese lenders, including China Development Bank (CDB), China Minsheng Banking Corporation Limited, and China Zheshang Bank, provided the majority share of ~70% of the total debt (USD 264.9 million), priced at 6M LIBOR plus 4.05% per annum, subsequently transitioned to Daily SOFR (120-day look-back) plus a credit adjustment spread of 0.42826% and an additional 4.05% per annum with effect from July 25, 2025. The remaining 30% was raised from a local banking syndicate led by Habib Bank Limited at 3M KIBOR plus 3.5% per annum. The debt is structured for repayment in twenty equal semi-annual installments, secured by project assets and shares. As of June 2026, approximately 14% of PKR and 23% of USD debt has been repaid.


Liquidity Profile

TNPTL, in its off-take agreement with CPPA-G, will receive capacity payments provided the plant meets contract availability, even if no purchase order is placed. As of June 30, 2026, the Company's trade receivables from CPPA-G stood at PKR 16,616 million. The Company holds short-term investments of Rs. 8,693 million in term deposit certificates (Jun-25: nil), taking cash and cash equivalents to Rs. 26,054 million (Jun-25: Rs. 29,200 million). To manage working capital, the Company utilizes short-term borrowings, with Rs. 1,500 million (26.0%) availed against a limit of Rs. 5,775 million.


Working Capital Financing

Due to rising trade receivables from CPPA-G, Gross Working Capital stood at 74 days as at end June 2024, which further increased to 109 days as of June 2025, and further increased to 118 days as of June 2026. This upward trend reflects continued delays in receivable settlements, indicating a growing strain on the Company's liquidity position. To manage these pressures, the Company has relied on a mix of internal cash generation and short-term bank lines.


Cash Flow Analysis

In FY26, the company's Free Cash Flow from Operations (FCFO) stood at Rs. 26,063 million, compared to Rs. 25,191 million in FY25. Coverage ratios strengthened further: EBITDA/Finance Cost improved to 3.0x (FY25: 2.4x; FY24: 2.0x) and FCFO/Finance Cost improved to 3.1x (FY25: 2.5x), aided by a decline in finance cost to Rs. 8,378 million (FY25: Rs. 10,209 million), reflecting both lower average debt balances following continued repayments and a lower average borrowing rate.


Capitalization

As of June 30, 2026, ThalNova Power Thar (Private) Limited's capital structure improved, with leveraging at 59.9% (Jun-25: 62.8%; Jun-24: 69.8%). Shareholders' equity stood at Rs. 50,175 million (Jun-25: Rs. 49,094 million; Jun-24: Rs. 37,707 million), after dividend payouts of Rs. 12,862 million during the year (Jun-25: nil). Total borrowings declined to Rs. 74,869 million (Jun-25: Rs. 82,800 million; Jun-24: Rs. 87,210 million), continuing the company's multi-period deleveraging trend, supported by a net asset base of Rs. 50,175 million.


 
 

Oct-26

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(PKR mln)


Jun-26
12M
Jun-25
12M
Jun-24
12M
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 97,627 101,835 103,168
2. Investments 8,693 0 0
3. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0
4. Current Assets 44,701 55,836 49,499
a. Inventories 447 522 544
b. Trade Receivables 16,616 16,218 16,610
5. Total Assets 151,020 157,671 152,667
6. Current Liabilities 25,857 25,279 26,956
a. Trade Payables 8,392 11,387 16,994
7. Borrowings 74,869 82,800 87,210
8. Related Party Exposure 119 497 793
9. Non-Current Liabilities 0 0 0
10. Net Assets 50,175 49,094 37,707
11. Shareholders' Equity 50,175 49,094 37,707
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 52,252 56,914 62,871
a. Cost of Good Sold (29,895) (34,704) (39,309)
2. Gross Profit 22,357 22,210 23,562
a. Operating Expenses (272) (273) (198)
3. Operating Profit 22,085 21,937 23,364
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) 1,702 907 (639)
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 23,787 22,844 22,725
a. Total Finance Cost (9,186) (11,005) (12,674)
b. Taxation (658) (447) (414)
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 13,943 11,392 9,637
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 26,063 25,191 25,176
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 17,089 13,789 14,023
c. Changes in Working Capital 1,639 (552) 9,335
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities 18,728 13,237 23,358
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities (266) (633) (19,401)
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities (21,535) (3,191) 13,247
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period (3,074) 9,412 17,203
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) -8.2% -9.5% 179.1%
b. Gross Profit Margin 42.8% 39.0% 37.5%
c. Net Profit Margin 26.7% 20.0% 15.3%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) 53.0% 43.3% 54.9%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 27.2% 23.6% 26.7%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 118 109 74
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 49 18 -8
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 1.7 2.2 1.8
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 3.0 2.4 2.0
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 1.7 1.5 1.4
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 4.2 5.5 6.6
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 59.9% 62.8% 69.8%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 210.8 247.9 155.8
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 10.6% 12.0% 14.1%

Oct-26

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