Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
13-Feb-26 A A2 Stable Maintain -
14-Feb-25 A A2 Stable Maintain -
16-Feb-24 A A2 Stable Maintain -
17-Feb-23 A A2 Stable Upgrade -
18-Feb-22 A- A2 Stable Maintain -
About the Entity

Gul Ahmed Electric Limited, incorporated in December 2015, is a Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer (RE IPP) operating under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006 by AEDB. Being a wholly owned subsidiary of Gul Ahmed Energy Limited, the Company's primary venture is a 50MW wind IPP located in Jhimpir, District Thatta, Sindh. The total project cost amounts to USD 62.95 million, financed through an 80:20 debt-to-equity structure. Under the leadership of CEO Mr. Danish Iqbal, the Company benefits from experienced management and established operational expertise in the renewable energy domain.

Rating Rationale

The ratings of Gul Ahmed Electric Limited (“GEL” or “the Company”) reflect its strong business profile, supported by an experienced management team, and professional oversight of operations. It operates a 50MW wind power project under a cost-plus tariff regime, with revenues emanating by selling electricity to CPPA-G. GEL has its wind power plant located in Jhimpir, District Thatta, Sindh, which achieved Commercial Operations Date (COD) on April 7, 2022, and has been supplying electricity to the national grid since then. During FY25 the plant generated 129,544 MWh of electricity (FY24: 118,718 MWh), translating into a load factor of 29.58% (FY24: 27.10%), while maintaining required operational benchmarks (Availability: 98%, Capacity: 38%). The variation in generation remains attributable to wind intensity patterns and grid demand dynamics. For FY25, the Company reported revenue of PKR 2,180 million (FY24: PKR 2,671 million), reflecting energy delivered to the national grid under the agreed tariff mechanism. Outstanding trade receivables stood at PKR 1,158 million (June 2024: PKR 1,032 million). Subsequently, as of September 2025, receivables were recorded at PKR 1,084 million. The Company’s capital structure remains project-financed, comprising a mix of foreign and local long-term debt with structured repayment profiles. As of December 2025, cumulative outstanding amount stood at approximately 81% of the foreign facility and 65% of the local facility, reflecting continued adherence to the agreed amortization schedule. Debt servicing capacity remains supported by predictable cash flows under the cost-plus tariff framework, though liquidity sensitivity persists due to receivable build-up trends. The ratings incorporate GEL’s association with the Gul Ahmed Group, which provides financial strength and governance oversight. Hydrochina International Engineering Company Limited and Hangzhou Huachen Electric Power Control Company served as EPC contractors, and Hydrochina International Engineering Company continues as the O&M operator, supporting operational stability throughout the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) tenure.

Key Rating Drivers

Going forward, the Company’s ability to sustain operational performance, ensure timely debt servicing, and manage receivable cycles amid evolving sector dynamics will remain critical to the ratings. Any significant adverse regulatory changes or prolonged stress in payment flows from the power purchaser may impact the Company’s liquidity profile and ratings trajectory.

Profile
Plant

Gul Ahmed Electric Limited (GEL) is a Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer (RE IPP) operating under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006. The company has set up a 50 MW wind power plant located in Jhimpir, District Thatta, Sindh.


Tariff

GEL is awarded a cost-plus tariff for wind power projects by NEPRA. On Nov. 18, NEPRA has determined the tariff; the company has a generation tariff of PKR 7.2340 per kilowatt hour (KWh) for years 1-10 and a generation tariff of PKR 2.3790 per kilowatt hour (KWh) for years 11-25. The levelized tariff for the project is US¢ 4.7212/KWh at the time of the financial close. The company has applied for an adjustment/true-up in its original tariff. The current tariff based on the interim relief for the recent quarter (Oct-Dec2025) was PKR 13.5931.


Return on Project

The ROE of the project, as agreed with NEPRA, is 14%.


Ownership
Ownership Structure

Gul Ahmed Electric Ltd. (GEL) is wholly owned by Gul Ahmed Energy Ltd. (GAEL).


Stability

Gul Ahmed Energy Group has a long history of diversified business since 1948. The group gradually diversified in various industries with operations across textiles, manufacturing, investments, and power & energy, and currently it is one of the leading industrial groups in the country.


Business Acumen

Gul Ahmed Energy Group is one of Pakistan’s leading power generation groups. Established in 1994 by (late) Mr. Iqbal Alimohamed, the group initiated operations with a thermal power plant located in Korangi Industrial Area, Karachi. Since then, the group has expanded its project portfolio to wind, solar & power solutions, with a power generation capacity of 236 megawatts (MW) in total.


Financial Strength

The company’s sponsors, with their strong financial muscle emanating from their business portfolio, have the capacity to support the entity both on an ongoing basis and during times of crisis.


Governance
Board Structure

Gul Ahmed Electric Limited's Board of Directors (BoD) comprises three members with extensive experience in different sectors and possessing diverse skill sets.


Members’ Profile

-Mr. Danish Iqbal is a pioneering force in Pakistan’s renewable energy sector, widely recognized for his strategic insight and transformative leadership. With over two decades of distinguished service, he currently holds the position of Chairman at Gul Ahmed Energy Limited and its subsidiaries, as well as leading the Metro Power Group, where he has spearheaded the development of four landmark wind energy projects.

-Mr. Abdul Razak Teli is the patriarch of the Teli family and is acting chairman of the board of the new Nakshbandi Textile Mills. He received his Bachelor of Commerce degree from Karachi University in 1966. Mr. Abdul Razak Teli is a well-known and respected member of the Pakistani textile industry. Mr. Abdul Razak Teli has very extensive experience in textiles as well as other industries. He is also currently serving on the boards of other companies.

-Nusair Siraj Teli joined the family business in 2016 and currently serves as the Co-CEO and Director of Pakistan Beverage Limited. He has been instrumental in the implementation of SAP technology at Pakistan Beverage Limited.


Board Effectiveness

The BoD has extensive experience across various sectors, including power and textiles. The company's board members engage in regular discussions, where key matters such as plant efficiency and the company’s performance are thoroughly reviewed. They also provide guidance to the management in developing effective policies to drive the Company’s growth and success.


Financial Transparency

A.F. Ferguson & Co. Chartered Accountants are the external auditors of the company. They have expressed an unqualified opinion on the company’s financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2025.


Management
Organizational Structure

The company has a lean organizational structure, primarily consisting of finance and technical staff, while the engineering, construction, and operations of the plant are outsourced. However, the reporting lines are clearly demarcated, ensuring efficient communication and accountability within the company.


Management Team

Mr. Danish Iqbal is the CEO of the company. He has over two decades of professional experience and has been associated with the company since its inception. He also holds the position of Chairman of Gul Ahmed Group and Metro Power Group and thus has extensive experience in the local power sector, especially in the domain of renewable energy.


Effectiveness

The management functions are clear and well-defined, ensuring the effective achievement of the company's goals and objectives. The board members closely oversee the team to ensure successful execution. Additionally, the management holds regular meetings to discuss company affairs.


Control Environment

The company has progressively enhanced its IT solutions, enabling improved performance across various areas. The quality of its IT infrastructure and the range of activities it supports have shown steady improvement, effectively aiding in monitoring operations and management reporting.


Operational Risk
Power Purchase Agreement

The Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) with CPPA-G spans a tenure of 25 years, commencing from the COD. According to the EPA, the company is obligated to generate electricity in line with the benchmark generation while maintaining the required efficiency. Any decline in generation due to an efficiency drop will not be compensated by the power purchaser. However, in the event of curtailment in offtake by the power purchaser, the company will be compensated for the missed volumes, termed Non-Project Missed Volumes (NPMV).


Operation and Maintenance

The company has signed a long-term Operations & Maintenance (O&M) contract with Hydro China International Engineering Company Limited for the plant. The contractor is responsible for the regular operations of the plant and ensuring that the minimum benchmarks as per the contract are met at all times.


Resource Risk

Resource variability risk is a unique challenge for renewable energy IPPs. For wind farms, this risk arises from their reliance on wind as a key resource, making them inherently exposed to wind risk. Under the Renewable Energy Policy 2006, wind risk is defined as the variability in wind speed, which directly affects the energy output of the wind IPP. According to the tariff structure, the company fully absorbs the risk associated with wind variability. Consequently, the company’s revenues and cash flows are influenced by seasonal variations in wind speed, which impact electricity generation and may result in fluctuations in cash flows.


Insurance Cover

As per the agreement, the EPC contractor shall be liable for the damages if the benchmark performance ratio has not been met. The company has adequate insurance coverage to cover the all Operational Risk, business interruptions, third Party Liability (Operational), Sabotage and Terrorism, Strikes, Riots, Civil Commotion and Malicious Damage.


Performance Risk
Industry Dynamics

The industry dynamics of Pakistan's power sector in 2024-2025 are marked by a stable outlook despite a decline in overall power generation. While total installed capacity rose 11% to 46,605 MW by 9MFY25—largely due to a 2,813 MW increase in renewable energy net metering—actual generation fell by 2%, leading to a lower average capacity factor of 22.1%. This shift in capacity occurred alongside the government’s termination of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with several Independent Power Producers (IPPs). The sector remains heavily dependent on thermal power, which accounts for the largest share of both capacity and generation, followed by hydel, nuclear, and renewable sources. Financially, the industry continues to grapple with a circular debt of approximately PKR 2.4 trillion, which the government is addressing through a combination of federal budget allocations and PKR 1.25 trillion in commercial bank loans to be repaid over six years via existing surcharges. Additionally, sector borrowing decreased by 7% to PKR 471,790 million by June 2025, with coal and thermal plants remaining the most heavily leveraged entities. During FY25, The actual production of the plant stood at 129,544 MWH (FY24: 118,718 MWH) with a load factor of 29.58% (FY24:27.10%). The actual production is subject to the actual load demanded and wind conditions during the reporting period. The actual production is subject to actual load demanded and wind conditions during the reporting period. The required availability and the capacity factor are 98% and 38%, respectively, as per the Energy Purchase Agreement. Failure to maintain the required benchmarks could result in liquidated damages imposed by the power purchaser on the company. During FY25, on average, the plant maintained its required benchmarks.


Generation

The actual production of the plant stood at 129,544 MWH during FY25 (FY24: 118,718 MWH) with a load factor of 29.58% (FY24: 27.10%). The actual production is subject to the actual load demanded and wind conditions during the reporting period.


Performance Benchmark

The required availability and the capacity factor are 98% and 38%, respectively, as per the Energy Purchase Agreement. Failure to maintain the required benchmarks could result in liquidated damages imposed by the power purchaser on the company. During FY25, on average, the plant maintained its required benchmarks.


Financial Risk
Financing Structure Analysis

The total project cost approved under NEPRA is ~USD 62.95 million, consisting of 80% of debt (~USD 50.36 million) and 20% of equity (~USD 12.59 million). The debt financing constitutes a foreign loan of USD ~24.45 million (3M SOFR+CAS+4.25%) and a local loan of PKR 4.129 billion (SBP refinancing rate of 3%+1.75%). The local loan is eligible for refinancing under the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Financing Scheme for Renewable Energy. The foreign loan has a maturity of 13 years, while the local loan has a maturity of 10 years. Both the local and foreign loans are repayable in quarterly installments. The company has repaid approximately ~19% of the foreign loan and ~35% of the local loan.


Liquidity Profile

As of Jun-2025, the company’s total receivables stood at PKR 1,158 million (June 2024: PKR 1,032 million), which are due from the power purchaser against the sale of energy. The increase in outstanding receivables represents the delay from the power purchaser due to the ongoing circular debt issue in the power sector.


Working Capital Financing

The company fulfills its working capital requirements through internally generated cash flows, without relying on short-term borrowing facilities. However, as a prudent measure, the company has secured sufficient working capital lines that can be utilized if necessary.


Cash Flow Analysis

The company’s Free Cash Flow from Operations (FCFO) has decreased, standing at PKR 1,683 million for FY25 (FY24: PKR 2,198 million), driven by adequate profitability as a result of an increase in tariff. The Company’s strong free cash flows ensure timely debt repayments.


Capitalization

The Company’s equity stands at PKR 3,835 million as of Jun 2025, resulting in a leveraging ratio of 71.6%. The debt on the balance sheet primarily reflects project-related long-term loans, and the leveraging ratio is expected to decline gradually with timely debt repayments.


 
 

Feb-26

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(PKR mln)


Sep-25
3M
Jun-25
12M
Jun-24
12M
Jun-23
12M
Management Audited Audited Audited
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 11,404 11,588 12,000 12,701
2. Investments 1,064 806 678 19
3. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 0
4. Current Assets 1,173 1,222 1,074 1,845
a. Inventories 0 0 0 0
b. Trade Receivables 1,084 1,158 1,032 907
5. Total Assets 13,641 13,616 13,751 14,565
6. Current Liabilities 104 116 147 1,014
a. Trade Payables 71 74 57 282
7. Borrowings 8,364 8,614 9,271 10,177
8. Related Party Exposure 1,071 1,050 942 755
9. Non-Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0
10. Net Assets 4,102 3,835 3,392 2,619
11. Shareholders' Equity 4,102 3,835 3,392 2,619
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 692 2,180 2,671 2,039
a. Cost of Good Sold (232) (916) (952) (787)
2. Gross Profit 461 1,264 1,720 1,252
a. Operating Expenses (21) (72) (36) (31)
3. Operating Profit 439 1,192 1,683 1,220
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) 26 141 117 22
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 466 1,332 1,801 1,242
a. Total Finance Cost (198) (870) (1,025) (834)
b. Taxation (1) (20) (3) (3)
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 267 443 773 405
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 572 1,683 2,198 1,664
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 374 970 1,372 961
c. Changes in Working Capital 27 (135) (1,014) (1,064)
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities 401 835 358 (103)
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities (184) 4 (531) 1
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities (230) (811) (757) (278)
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period (12) 27 (930) (380)
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) 27.0% -18.4% 31.0% 281.0%
b. Gross Profit Margin 66.5% 58.0% 64.4% 61.4%
c. Net Profit Margin 38.5% 20.3% 28.9% 19.9%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) 86.5% 71.0% 44.3% 29.4%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 26.0% 11.5% 22.1% 16.5%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 148 183 132 122
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 138 172 109 75
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 11.3 10.5 7.3 1.8
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.1
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.1
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 6.3 11.2 8.3 12.4
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 69.7% 71.6% 75.1% 80.7%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 0.0 0.6 1.9 8.0
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 8.1% 8.2% 9.2% 7.6%

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